This week’s powerball currently has a rollover jackpot of 90 million Rands. A highly attractive target. But before going off to “tata your chance”, let’s look at the statistical probability that you’ll win the South African powerball game.

To win the jackpot prize in powerball, you’ll need to select 5 numbers between 1 and 45 and also the matching powerball number which is between 1 and 20. The powerball number can be the same as one of the group of 5 numbers selected previously.

So, by my calculation, the number of ways 5 numbers can be randomly selected from a set of 45 is:
45! / ( 5! * (45-5)! ) = 1221759

And since, for each of the 1221759 combinations there are 20 different ways to pick the powerball number, the overall chance of getting the jackpot is one in ( 1221759 * 20 ) = 24435180, so in English it is roughly one in 24.4 million.

Out of curiosity, is it easier to win the regular South African lotto? Here the rules are simpler, you’ll need to select 6 numbers between 1 and 49. So, using a similar calculation as before:
49! / ( 6! * (49-6)! ) = 13983816, or in English nearly one in 14 million.

Tax on the stupid or not? Even knowing these odds though, I’ll probably be buying a powerball ticket for the next draw and pretend I’ve got a decent chance ☺